First estimations on the 2018/2019 harvest

According to the first estimations for the upcoming 2018/19 olive harvest, if the climatology allows it, and with the caution that the agricultural production forecasts require, we could see the highest olive oil production ever recorded. Through information gathered in the main producing countries, experts expect the next output of olive oil to be 3.4 million tons, surpassing by 1% the two record campaigns of 2011/12 and 2017/18, both with 3.3 million tons.
Although olive oil is produced in 58 countries, which have all been analyzed, only 10 will generate 93% of the world’s olive oil.
Spain, the main olive oil provider worldwide, will produce 1.45 to 1.55 million tons, an important increase compared to 2017/18 (1.25 million tons), with an obvious enhanced quality.
Italy is expected to have a decreased production, mainly due to frosts in Puglia, the first producing region, reaching 200,000 tons.
Greece estimates an important decrease compared to last campaign, producing a maximum of 250,000 tons in 2018/19. There are also quality concerns in some areas, related to olive fly and gloeosporium infection.
Portugal should be reaching 110,000 tons maximum (its 2017/18 production was 134,800 tons).
In contrast with the 2017/18 record year (280,000 tons), Tunisia will still maintain relatively satisfactory levels, reaching 150,000-170,000 tons.
Morocco could produce 100,000-120,000 tons (the production in 2017/18 reached 140,000 tons).
Turkey’s production will stay high, predicting 210,000-230,000 tons compared to the 2017/18 production of 263,000 tons.
Overall, the production in the seven Mediterranean countries is expected to be approximately at the same levels as last year. Spain’s increase will balance the decrease in almost all the other countries.
As far as the market is concerned, being the situation very similar to the ending crop in terms of total quantities, we expect prices to remain stable at current levels.
However, these are just the first projections after the paralysis of the summer weeks. We will provide more detailed information once the harvest has started, towards the end of October.